Stocks and Dollars

Risk aversion dominated markets last week and wold stock markets turned negative for the year as MSCI world index erased all it’s gains this year. We’re talking about S&P 500 having the losing losing streak since last August. Major European indices fell last week with notable fall in FTSE by

USD/CHF’s rally extended further to as high as 0.9499 last week before making a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9351) and below. But downside is expected to be contained by 38.2%

Last week’s strong rally in USD/CAD confirmed that consolidation pattern from 1.0656 is finished with three waves down to 0.9799. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.0063 support holds, even in case of retreat. Current rally from 0.9799 is expected to extend to 1.0522/0656 resistance zone next.

AUD/USD’s decline extended further last week as expected and reached as low as 0.9794 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9663 support first, then 161.8% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 0.9459. On the upside, above 0.9957 minor resistance will turn bias neutral

GBP/JPY dived to as low as 124.64 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current fall from 133.48 should target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 133.48 at 123.19 next. Sustained break there will target a test on 116.83/117.29

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2641 last week and formed a short term bottom there, above 1.2625 low, and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2844) and above. But strong resistance should be seen below 1.2994

USD/JPY’s decline continued last week and reached as low as 78.99, breaking mentioned 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13. Initial bias remains on the downside the week and current fall should target 75.56/76.02 support zone in near term. On the upside, break of 80.54 resistance is needed to

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.6300 accelerated to as low as 1.5731 last week before forming a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5731 at 1.5948 and bring fall resumption.