By Peter Tchir:
I think we all know now what the Fed is thinking. Ben is happy to add more liquidity to the system but is constrained by a group that needs to see bad data before they can support him. I think it is pretty straightforward on the economic data front. Bad data, particularly in jobs and housing will make the Fed react, but it will take some actual bad data, not just “blah” data like we have had the past few weeks.
The bigger question is how quickly would Ben respond to a decline in the stock market?
Although the Fed made it clear they focus on the economy, there is strong evidence that they would react to a downturn in the market, but I think they would be reluctant to move unless we saw a significant move. Without weak data, I don’t think the Fed is in position to do