The Silver Singularity Is Near

January - 27 - 2012

By Mike Scully:

Price, as they say, is determined on the margins. This is especially true for inelastic goods. If 100 Tickle Me Elmo dolls exist in Walmart on Christmas eve, and 100 people absolutely need to have them, you don’t have a problem. The price will be some reasonable markup on the cost of production. However, if one more person walks in fearing the wrath of his child if there’s no Elmo under the tree, Walmart (WMT) can quickly turn into a war zone. In Walmart, this supply shortage might be settled by shoving and hair pulling. In a civilized market, this supply, demand inequity is settled with price. In the case of Elmo in 1996, some dolls were reportedly sold in aftermarkets for $1500.

This is an important concept to keep in mind when evaluating the silver market. Silver is interesting because it is actually two different markets. On one hand,

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